Catcher: They should probably let Victor Martinez walk and I think that they will. Yes, he's a good guy and a very good hitter. However he's a very weak fielding catcher and having a better than average glove at that position is more important than having a better than average bat. In addition it appears he wants a minimum of three years. That's too long. He won't be getting better in the next three years. Let him go ( probably to Texas) and let Varitek ride off into the sunset as well. In addition to being quite old. He's totally injury prone and you can't carry three catchers. The Red Sox should look to sign John Buck to a short term deal. He's an above average fielding catcher that hit 20 homers last year playing in the AL East. Sign Buck as your everyday guy and hope that Saltalamachia can begin to become the player that most scouts think he can be.
First Base: Youklis has this position on lockdown unless something interesting happens with regard to Adrian Gonzalez out in San Diego. Although I don't see the Sox parting with the 2 or 3 top prospects that it will take to get him away from San Diego.
Second Base: I think Pedroia has this position for the next 4-8 years.
Shortstop: Two months ago I would have said that Scutaro was a pretty safe bet to be the opening day shortstop. Now I'm not so sure. Lowrie made a compelling case in the last month of the season. Lowrie will have a chance to win this position in Spring Training. I'm not sure if he will but if he does then look for Scutaro to be involved in some sort of trade. He's not that pricey and there will be a very willing market for him.
Third Base: This is a big issue. Beltre just finished off an exceptional season. Most reports seem to say that he enjoyed playing in Boston quite a bit. Scott Boras is his agent so you can forget about any sort of discount just because he happened to like Boston. The issue is twofold. Can the Sox afford him? Yes they can. Will they pay him? I'm not so sure. He's not just going to want a lot of money per year ( I'm thinking in the 12-15 million range) he's also going to want at least three years. Three years and 42 million. Is he worth it? Hard to tell. A quick glance at his career numbers suggests that years where he hits over 300 are more an aberration than the norm. In twelve and a half big league seasons he's finished over 300 just twice, this year and in 2004. 2004 just happened to be the year preceding his last big free-agent contract. This past season was also just his fourth with an on base percentage over 350. If the Sox let him go then the question becomes "who plays third?". There aren't too many decent third baseman in all of the big leagues never mind ones who are free-agents this coming off season. So Beltre has put himself in an extremely advantageous situation. If he leaves then the Sox could go after a first baseman and move Youklis to third. The list of free-agent first baseman is much better. Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko and Carlos Pena headline it. Forget Pena, he just doesn't get on base enough. However Adam Dunn is only 30 years old, he has a career obp of 381 a career ops of 901 and averages 40 homers a year. It's going to depend on the dollars and also wether or not Youklis is willing to make a move to third. They still could pursue Adrian Gonzalez but if given the choice between spending a ton of money or spending a ton of money AND parting with top minor league talent Theo seems to prefer to keep the kids in the system. ( I do to)
Outfield: The Sox have a huge payroll but it's not even close to the Yanks. That means that they will never have all-stars 1-9 in the lineup. After the injuries to Ellsbury and the disaster that was the Mike Cameron signing many Sox fans are calling for a wholesale change in the outfield. Not only is that unlikely to happen but I'm not even sure it's needed. The biggest issue this past season was without question Jacoby Ellsbury. Seemingly on the verge of superstardom Ellsbury had a brutal collision with Adrian Beltre on April 11th and never really recovered. Nearly the entire season was spent on the disabled list. By summer Ellsbury had become the target of both media and fan scorn due in large part to the seemingly never-ending recovery time and his total lack of communication to even his own teammates. No question that Ellsbury handled the injury poorly from a PR standpoint. None of that changes the fact that he's still young ( 27) and still possesses a a skill set that you just can't go out and replace in major league baseball. Even if you are one of the fans that thinks Ellsbury should be traded common sense would suggest that you would want to trade Ellsbury at a time when his value did not sit at it's lowest level since his days as a Class A minor leaguer. Be patient Sox fans, Ellsbury will likely hit 300 and steal 50+bases next season. The 2011 season will be JD Drew's final one in Boston. I know most fans consider that a blessing and I won't miss his all that much but he's not a bad guy to have out there most days and he won't be losing his starting position anytime next season so pencil him into right field and let him go after next year. The last outfielder is the big question mark. There are a number of marquee free-agent outfielders available. Carl Crawford and Jason Werth are the big names. I really don't see the Sox seriously pursuing Crawford, yes he's very good, but he's going to be extremely expensive, he could very well be the largest free-agent contract after Cliff Lee this off-season. In addition his greatest strength is his speed which is something that at age 29 is a near certainty to decline over the next 4 years. Crawford has never hit more than 20 home runs in a season, he has a career on base percentage of just 337, in short I just don't see him in the Sox plans. They might get involved if for no other reason then to drive the price up on the teams that are more serious. To me Crawford will be in one of two uniforms next year. Yankee pinstripes or The Angels. Both teams have the money, the Yanks may need to deal either Granderson or Gardner to obtain pitching and the Angels have huge holes in their outfield. Werth will get more attention from the Sox. If they were to sign him I wouldn't be shocked but I don't think it's that needed. The reason? The Red Sox have two guys in Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish that may both be pretty decent major leaguers. Kalish is especially attractive. He's only 22 and has shown some power, better than average speed ( 10 steals) and a nice glove in the outfield. Reddick has been a bit less impressive but I really think the Sox may give Kalish a shot at an everyday job in spring training. He may end up being pretty good and while an outfield of Ellsbury/Drew/Kalish wouldn't be hitting a ton of home runs they would play great defense, have a high on base percentage and steal some bases too.
DH: One of two things is going to happen here. The Sox will probably offer Ortiz something in the area of a 2 year 16-18 million dollar deal. If he turns it down then they will pick up his 1 year 12.5 million dollar option and let him walk after next year. If he accepts it then Sox fans will get Papi for two more years. Either way I don't see Papi playing anywhere but Boston in 2011. He deserves to come back. After his atrocious April there really wasn't a better DH in the AL with the exception of Vlad Guerrero in Texas.
Starting Pitchers: Yes Beckett was awful and yes Lackey was a huge letdown. Here's the real issue. Those guys aren't going anywhere. They are signed to contract so huge that they are untradeable entities unless one of them magically morphs into Cy Young. Lester and Buchholz are also untradeable but for a different set of reasons. Only if the Yanks were to sign Cliff Lee would a team in the American League head into next season with an arguably better one-two punch than Lester and Buchholz. Then there's that pesky fifth starter. As of now his name is Dice-K. He still has 2 years at 10 million a year left on his contract. By now it's a safe bet that Theo and company realize they will never get anywhere near full value for the large contract and posting fee they paid all for the privilege of being able to watch a guy make more 0-2 counts into 3-2 counts than almost anyone in recent memory. Still even I a dedicated Dice-K hater will admit he had some nice outings down the stretch this past season. He will be shopped this off season. I'm not sure he'll be dealt but there will be offers made. Felix Dubront would be a much cheaper and likely not much worse #5 starter.
The Bullpen: After the injuries there was nothing more aggravating about the 2010 season for Sox fans then the bullpen. It began in 2009 when Papelbon blew a two run lead with two outs in the 9th as the Sox were swept by the Angels. This season seemed like one long continuation of that futility as nearly every Sox reliever with the exception of young fireballer Daniel Bard consistently allowed inherited runners to score, walked hitters, and generally stunk. Bard wasn't perfect but he was pretty close. Everyone else was between mediocre ( Papelbon) and awful ( take your pick). Most won't be back. Delcarmen is already gone, Okijima will be gone, Bard will be back as will Papelbon for what will likely be his final season in a Sox uniform. Look for the Sox to pursue numerous free-agent relievers. There are a ton of good ones out there but among the best non-closers are guys like Joaquin Benoit of Tampa, Matt Thorton in Chicago, Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg in Toronto, and Kerry Wood in NY.
There will be changes Sox fans and to me the core of the team returning in 2011 looks very good. Consider that this team finished 7 games out of first and 6 back from the wildcard while missing Pedroia and Youklis for almost the whole second half, Ellsbury for the whole season, and getting subpar performances from the entire bullpen as well as Beckett and Lackey. Nice work Tito and company. See you in the Spring.
No comments:
Post a Comment